The hottest PX price continues to close, and PTA r

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PX prices continued to clear the barrier, PTA rising momentum remained

the rebound of ta1101 contract since 7200 yuan/ton in mid July, successively conquered the two important golden section resistance levels of 38.2% and 50% of the previous round of decline, and attacked 61.8% of the previous round of decline again after the Mid Autumn Festival, that is, the resistance level near 8250 yuan/ton, but then encountered an embarrassing trend of three consecutive overcast. However, the closing price before the National Day holiday was still above the 5-day moving average. After the National Day holiday, with the good performance of polyester during the holiday and the rising trend of the outer market, on October 8, ta1101 jumped high and opened high, occupying a plateau above 8250 yuan/ton. Looking forward to the future, driven by the continuous rise of raw material PX and the polyester market, PTA still has the power to continue to rise

first, the overall macro environment is relatively warm, boosting market confidence

recently, the U.S. stock market has performed relatively strongly. The Dow Jones industrial average not only won the battle for 10000 points, but also continued to expand in September, consolidating the strong support of the 10000 point level, breaking through the previous suppression near 10720 points. 4 With firm clamp pliers, it can firmly hold the shoelaces, and it continued to rise steadily on October 8, returning to more than 11000 points for the first time since the beginning of May

the US dollar index has entered a downward trajectory since mid September, and has not reversed the decline so far. The direct consequence is that funds are accelerated to transfer to the crude oil and commodity markets. The expectation of a new round of quantitative easing triggered by the Bank of Japan's unexpected interest rate cut and the continuous weakening of the dollar have become the main reasons for the rising commodity prices during the National Day holiday

in terms of crude oil, according to the latest data provided by CFTC, as of October 5, the number of multiple orders of crude oil fund increased by 25893, the number of empty orders of fund decreased by 28637, and the net number of multiple orders increased by 54530. The capital began to enter on a large scale, which will promote the aluminum alloy battery packs, fenders, crash beams, subframes and other types of body and chassis parts brought by many crude oil enterprises to comprehensively show the utilization of aluminum alloy new material technology in automobile manufacturing, which will continue to maintain a strong strength in the near future, and constitute a certain cost and confidence support for downstream petrochemical products, including PTA

at present, the low interest rate monetary environment that drives commodity prices has not changed. Domestically, the data released by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing showed that the PMI index in August was 51.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from July, ending three consecutive months of decline. The PMI index continued to rise in September, reaching 53.8%, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in August. PMI rebounded month on month, showing signs that China's economy is stabilizing. Although the domestic market is facing the impact of real estate regulation recently, the market has long expected this, and the response of the commodity market is relatively flat

second, PX has continuously overcome many difficulties and pushed up the PTA Market

affected by the huge amount of new capacity in 2009, the pressure of PX oversupply has become increasingly prominent. Since this year, the price difference between PX and naphtha or MX has been below the break even line for most of the time, and PX manufacturers have been suffering. Especially since May this year, the profits of polyester products in the PTA industrial chain have improved sharply, and PX manufacturers have to carry out self-help. Since July, many sets of PX devices at home and abroad have begun to reduce production or shut down, and the PX price has gradually rebounded. The revenue has improved compared with the previous period, but it is still hovering around the profit and loss line. At present, the device load of major domestic PX manufacturers remains at a relatively low level of 60% - 70%

at the same time, because PX devices are mostly integrated devices, the start-up of the refinery largely determines the amount of PX supply. The summer driving peak in the United States has ended, and the demand for crude oil will weaken. American refineries will enter the maintenance state in autumn, while the demand for heating oil in winter will not come until November. The reduction of refinery operating rate indirectly reduces the market supply of PX. Therefore, in October, the supply pressure of PX will be reduced from the source, and the price of PX will continue to remain strong and even expand the results

customs data show that from January to July this year, China imported 2.0544 million tons of PX, a decrease of 8.1% from 2.2347 million tons in the same period in 2009. According to the statistics of China chemical fiber information, from January to July this year, China's PTA output was about 7.3365 million tons, an increase of more than 24.2% over 5.9055 million tons in the same period last year. This shows that PTA plants' demand for PX has increased significantly, and the contradiction of PX oversupply has been alleviated

in terms of contract goods, the contract price advocated by the three major Asian suppliers in October was $1080/ton CFR Asia, 130/ton higher than the contract settlement price in September. On the spot market, as of the close of October 8, PX rose $16 to $1104/ton FOB South Korea, breaking the $1100/ton barrier. PX has risen by 290 US dollars per ton of high-temperature universal material testing machine in less than three months, with an increase of 35.6%. It has become a star variety in the PTA industry chain and a strong driving force for the rise of PTA market

third, the downstream rigid demand is strong, providing a solid backing

in October, the polyester and weaving restrictions in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have been basically lifted, and the downstream is in the traditional peak season. Especially during the National Day holiday, the prices of polyester products increased significantly, the production and marketing rate improved, and the load of polyester and terminal looms also increased significantly. The substantial increase in the number of downstream weaving machines this year has made tight supply and low inventory become the characteristics of the polyester Market in the near future. The usually unimpressive direct spinning polyester staple fiber has played a leading role in the long market of polyester products, not only breaking through the consolidation pattern of more than a month in the early stage, but also rising from 9670 yuan/ton on August 31 to 12700 yuan/ton on October 8, setting a new high in the year, with an increase of more than 3000 yuan/ton, The increase was 31.3%

the rise in the price of polyester staple fiber, on the one hand, is related to the stagnation of production capacity and the lack of increase in market supply, on the other hand, is driven by the surge in cotton, a related product. The prices of cotton and viscose staple fiber have continued to rise, raising the cost of textile raw materials. In order to reduce production costs, downstream textile enterprises have increased the demand for relatively low polyester staple fiber. This year is a relatively prosperous year for the textile industry, especially in the yarn sector. All kinds of yarns have always maintained a high level of profitability, their acceptance of textile raw materials is acceptable, and the cost transfer is relatively smooth, which is conducive to the subsequent development of the market

in the terminal market, from January to August this year, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 129.804 billion US dollars, an increase of 23.75% year-on-year. Among them, the export value of textile yarn, fabrics and products totaled US $49.515 billion, an increase of 32.29% year-on-year; The export value of clothing and clothing accessories totaled US $80.289 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.02%, showing that the external demand for textiles and clothing is very strong. In the domestic demand market, the growth rate is also amazing. From January to August, the retail sales of domestic clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles reached 354billion yuan, an increase of 23.7% year-on-year. The growth of domestic and foreign demand is the main source of this year's astonishing profits of polyester and polyester, and it is also a solid backing for the development of the textile raw material market

at present, although PTA load has rebounded to the high level of 94%, this is only a short-term phenomenon, and PTA suppliers still maintain it from October to November. PTA market is still dominated by both upstream and downstream, especially ta1101 contract. After the volume reduction exceeded 8250 yuan/ton on October 8, it increased its position and volume significantly on October 11, and the technical form is more perfect. PTA is expected to challenge the high point in April this year, but we note that the rise of PTA is more driven by external factors in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and its own supply is still loose. We should be cautious in optimism

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